Tehran May Release Hundreds of Thousands Afghan Migrants toward Iraq and Turkey

Iranian authorities are considering the transfer of a massive number of Afghani migrants over its western borders with neighboring states. This step is part of what authorities call as a inevitably more offensive and unexpected approach following the attacks on its nuclear facilities and the EU restoration of United Nations penalties.

Multi-Pronged Offensive Involves Expansion of Missile Programme

The multi-pronged offensive encompasses growth in its missile development, bolstering air defense systems, halting collaboration with the UN nuclear watchdog and, on October 18, blocking the establishment of a United Nations panel to supervise the implementation of the reimposed sanctions. Officials remain opposed to reopening talks with the US, convinced that discussions would not succeed.

Migrant Warning Mirrors Turkish President's Warning

The warning about migrant movement towards the west and also eastward has echoes of the statement made by the leader of Turkey, President Erdoğan, who threatened to send millions of Syrian refugees into European nations.

Iran has at times had to accommodate as many as 6 million Afghan refugees, but human rights groups state that in the current year, a million Afghan refugees were returned to their home country, having fled either due to economic hardship or Taliban control.

Amnesty claimed the large-scale returns were increased following the June 12 Israeli strikes on Tehran's officials and nuclear facilities. Reports suggest 500,000 Afghans were deported across the frontier after the attacks.

Legal Status Changes for Migrants

Until March 2025, several million Afghans were allowed to legally reside temporarily in the country by obtaining a “headcount” document. Holders of this permit could access restricted benefits, such as state healthcare, public education, work authorisation, financial services and ability to enter into housing contracts. But the authorities invalidated these registration papers.

The Tehran government have given different figures about the number of Afghan refugees in the nation, but it is thought a at least two million are in Iran illegally. The UN refugee agency forecasts that up to 4 million Afghans may be sent back to Afghanistan in the coming months.

Comprehensive Plan of Reconstruction Under Way

A wide-ranging reconstruction effort is under way in the country, involving debates about the tools it possesses to safeguard its interests in the wake of the joint strikes by Israel and the US in the summer. Tehran has called back its diplomats from European nations for consultations at the Iranian foreign office about the situation.

Authorities are hesitant about withdrawing from the NPT, in part because the significant measures were already implemented to halt collaboration with the UN nuclear weapons inspectorate.

Diplomatic Proposals and International Response

Iranian officials confirm that in talks with France at the United Nations meeting, Tehran proposed to permit nuclear monitors to inspect the damaged facility at the Natanz complex, and also offered to disclose its reserves of enriched nuclear material within 45 days. In return, Tehran sought the threat of the return of UN sanctions to be removed indefinitely, rather than for three months, the original French-led offer.

Iran claims the US refused to engage with these proposals, part of what Tehran believes has become an increasingly erratic and unprofessional US diplomatic operation led by Steve Witkoff, a figure viewed by Tehran as either outside the loop or duplicitous. Witkoff, for instance was sending the Iranian delegation heading to the UN information about a discussion he planned to conduct with Iran’s diplomats, but he canceled the talks altogether.

Upcoming Diplomatic Clash and Moscow's Position

In the next probable diplomatic clash with the United States, analysts predict that on 18 October Moscow, as current president of the UN Security Council, will use its power as a permanent member to prevent the creation of a United Nations committee to supervise and manage the penalties restored by the European Union.

Russia and China have sent letters to the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to say EU nations did not have the right to reimpose the penalties as they did on 28 September, since Europe in their view was no longer a participant in the atomic agreement, and had not used the conflict resolution process.

The impasse makes it likely that some countries will not comply with the implementation of UN penalties. Nations like Japan, Canada, and Turkey have already started to reimpose the sanctions, but states aligned with Russia and China will refuse. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, signed an executive order mandating financial blocks on Iranian individuals and entities associated with Iran's atomic projects and major state banks.

Impact of Sanctions on Iran's Economy

Authorities state the most severe penalties on Iran are the existing ones imposed by the US, and in contrast the restored UN sanctions originally from 2006-2010 are relatively narrow, as they exclude Iran's petroleum industry but instead targeted financial blocks, weapon restrictions and bans on missile trade.

However, Iran acknowledges that even the partial return of UN sanctions is affecting investor trust and currency values. The value of the US dollar in Iran's open market has set a new record.