As numerous supporters in the UK focus on their clubs' early-season fortunes or discuss upcoming fall test matches, the battle for World Cup 2027 qualifying rages on at full pace.
Chile secured their back-to-back spot at the tournament with a stunning playoff victory over Samoa last month, leaving a single remaining spot up for grabs for Australia in two years. At the same time, Paraguay surprised Brazil by twenty points in the first leg of their playoff.
The second leg takes place on Saturday in the Brazilian city, near São Paulo, as Brazil's squad attempts to emulate their women's success and secure qualification for the first time.
Regardless of Paraguay manages a surprise aggregate win, or Brazil bounces back after manager their coach's departure, the participants for November's qualifying event in Dubai will then be finalized. Namibia, Belgium, and the Samoan side have already secured spots for the Dubai-based showdown from 8-18 November.
Many other nations have likewise earned their spots. The Hong Kong China team achieved maiden qualification following beating Korea by a large margin in the summer, and the Zimbabwean squad will make a comeback to rugby union's premier tournament for the first occasion since 1991 by virtue of winning the Rugby Africa Cup.
The knock-on effect of Chile's playoff success means that Los Condores will play against Italy for the first time next month during the fall test series, replacing Samoa who must compete in the Dubai tournament.
World Rugby's CEO described Chile an "thrilling and rapidly rising force" in confirming the forthcoming fixture in the Italian city. While local the sport markets seek larger crowds, rugby in Chile is thriving. A capacity crowd of over 20,000 saw the playoff victory in Viña del Mar, and head coach Pablo Lemoine has led the squad on an improving path since taking over in recent years.
The fifty-year-old former Uruguayan prop has been influencing the game for many years: signed by the English club in the late 90s, he memorably ran straight through the English defense to score at the 2003 Rugby World Cup.
His influence as national coach has been equally significant: Chile have risen to 17th, their highest-ever ranking. At the last tournament in Europe, they were defeated in all matches, allowing over two hundred points and scoring 27, including a heavy loss to England.
However, they proudly found the positive aspects, and after the tournament draw in Australia on 3 December, Lemoine can begin planning in earnest. They hosted Scotland last year, defeated 52-11 in front of 24,000 fans, and while they were beaten across two legs by the Uruguayan side in the first 2027 playoff, they achieved a narrow win on the road in the Uruguayan capital.
The Samoan team, meanwhile, have not missed all World Cup for decades, but are currently languishing in 16th position in the global rankings. They were winless in this year's regional tournament, resulting in qualifying disappointment versus Chile, and the need to meet teams like Belgium brings additional challenge for the rugby-loving country.
Apart from individual nations' performances, it is worth noting how different the expanded competition will look in the next edition. For the first occasion, there will be a knockout stage with six pools of four rather than four pools of five teams. Group phase risk is much lower because the top four third-placed teams will also qualify.
The hosts, the Australian team, are now ranked seventh in the global rankings, which means they would fall short on a top seed and might meet either the Springboks, New Zealand, Ireland, France, England, or Argentina in Pool A. They could climb into the top six during a packed autumn schedule, however: England, the Italian side, the Irish squad, and the French team are their opponents, with a match against Japan in the capital additionally planned for October 25th.
Wales, on the other hand, are teetering in twelfth place, with Japan below, and the consequences of dropping to 13th and into pot three are possibly significant.
An additional new dimension for 2027 is the presence of five nations from the American continent: Argentina, the Uruguayan side, the United States, Canada, and Chile – with either Paraguay or Brazil possibly making it six. From World Rugby's perspective, engagement from the Americas is positive, especially with the 2031 tournament scheduled to be hosted by the USA, and the selection process for the 2035 edition was launched last month.
First things first, however. The second installment of Brazil v Paraguay sets up a four-team qualifying contest, along with a potential standings change throughout Europe in the coming month. No matter the outcome, Chile's qualification for a second consecutive World Cup has already established them as a resounding success story.
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